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A flash estimate of Eurozone inflation for November will be released next week (November 30). In October, inflation rose further to 10.6% y/y, from 9.9% y/y previously. The main driver was food prices, which increased to 13.1% y/y. In contrast, energy price pressures remained stable at a high level and core inflation also recorded only a slight increase to 5.0% y/y. Although energy price pressures stabilized, an analysis of the data shows that, on one hand, price dynamics for fuels (petrol and diesel) are falling rapidly. On the other hand, the dynamics for electricity and gas continue to increase. This...

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27

2022-11

EZ – Inflation should peak soon

A flash estimate of Eurozone inflation for November will be released next week (November 30). In October, inflation rose further to 10.6% y/y, from 9.9% y/y previously. The main driver was food prices, which increased to 13.1% y/y. In contrast, energy price pressures remained stable at a high level and core inflation also recorded only a slight increase to 5.0% y/y. Although energy price pressures stabilized, an analysis of the data shows that, on one hand, price dynamics for fuels (petrol and diesel) are falling rapidly. On the other hand, the dynamics for electricity and gas continue to increase. This...


27

2022-11

XAU/USD outlook: Dovish Fed and safe-haven buying underpin gold price

XAU/USD Gold price edges lower in European trading on Friday, after the action repeatedly failed at 10DMA ($1756), with daily techs remaining bullishly aligned after a pullback from Nov 15 peak ($1786) found firm ground just above pivotal Fibo support (38.2% of $1616/$1786), reinforced by rising 20DMA. The metal is on track for a marginal weekly gains that would partially offset negative signal from previous week's bearish candle with long upper shadow, with more positive signals from monthly performance, as the yellow metal advanced strongly in December and on track for the first bullish monthly close after seven straight months...


27

2022-11

Trading the 200th Nonfarm Payrolls with Wayne McDonell – Interview

Wayne McDonell has been trading the currency markets in the public eye since 2005. In 2006, he started presenting our Nonfarm Payrolls coverage. We want to celebrate with you his 200th coverage in FXStreet with this exclusive interview. 1. You have been covering Non-Farm Payrolls for 16 and a half years, how do you feel about the trader you were when you started covering it? When I watch videos of the original events, one thing stands out immediately is that very little has changed.  My charts and indicators are the same.  My strategy is the same.  I am proud to...


27

2022-11

Forex analysis on EUR/USD, GBP/JPY and CAD/CHF

EUR/USD may move back to parity EUR/USD managed to move rise by almost 1,000 pips after it has been falling for more than a year. In fact, this pullback was needed as the currency pair dropped by more than 20% in just twelve months. The eurodollar moved from $0.9534 to $1.047 in two months in the midst of a US dollar retreat. Related article: Stock indices may crash again soon Now the currency pair stopped at a trend line and resistance. It could be heading back to parity if it fails to break the trend line. Several failed divergences also...


27

2022-11

Winning the day

S&P 500 closed on a fine note, and keeps nibbing at 4,040 – the great resistance that will ultimately fall (likely early next week). Running the stops before that, but key sectoral performance indicates that it would be only weak hand that would be shaken out. If the sellers had any chance to push through, it was this week – and the final opportunity to do so this year, is to evaporate once the second week of Dec gets out of the way. The outside markets aren‘t hinting at much success for the bears – bonds remain risk-on, USD not...


27

2022-11

Dow Jones outlook: Dow remains firm as traders focus on Black Friday

Dow Jones The Dow Jones is trading just under new multi-month high and moving within a narrow range for the second straight day, in a holiday-thinned market. Traders were mainly on hold for Thanksgiving, but closely watch major retailers on Black Friday, amid the fact that inflation remains high and threats of possible recession next year. The Dow keeps overall strong bullish stance and extends October’s massive gains, sparked by better than expected earnings season and additionally boosted by signals that the Fed would ease its aggressive stance in tightening its monetary policy. Monthly bullish engulfing in October strongly underpinned...


26

2022-11

Fed sees smaller rate hikes coming and the cost of Thanksgiving [Video]

Happy Thanksgiving to any of our US followers! I have some holiday-related stats to quiz you on to get the episode started this week. Then from a market perspective, I cover what information we learned from the latest FOMC minutes, why the UK is set to be one of the worst performers in the G20 over the next two years, and what caused volatility in the oil market this week.


26

2022-11

Euro inflation key to size of next ECB hike

Flash PMI’s for November turned out to be a mixed bag. US data disappointed as the manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.6 from 50.4 and service PMI pushed lower as well to 46.1 from 47.8. It is broadly in line with our view that the US economy is heading into a mild recession in early 2023. Investments still look resilient as durable goods orders were decent in October. However, leading indicators suggest investments will slow down soon. For once the picture was a little more positive in the euro area as both PMI manufacturing and service were better than expected. The...


26

2022-11

What’s next for commodities as Fed prepares to pivot on rate hikes? [Video]

It's official: The most eagerly awaited economic report of this month, if not this year was released on Wednesday and showed the U.S central bank favors slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes to mitigate risks of overtightening. Minutes from the FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting earlier this month revealed several officials backed the need to slow the pace of rate hikes – signalling a pivot to smaller interest rate increases from as early as December. This adds weight to expectations the central bank will raise rates by 50 basis points next month, finally ending a run of super-sized 75 basis point...


26

2022-11

Week Ahead – Decisive week for the dollar as PCE inflation and NFP reports coming up [Video]

After the Thanksgiving downtime that generated some further weakness for the greenback, investors will be looking for fresh direction from the barrage of US economic data that will be dominating the agenda in the coming week. The latest payrolls report will be the main attraction along with PCE inflation readings. CPI data out of Australia, the Eurozone and Switzerland as well as Canadian GDP numbers will be important too, while OPEC’s monthly decision will be another one to watch amid speculation of an output increase.


  • A flash estimate of Eurozone inflation for November will be released next week (November 30). In October, inflation rose further to 10.6% y/y, from 9.9% y/y previously. The main driver was food prices, which increased to 13.1% y/y. In contrast, energy price pressures remained stable at a high level and core inflation also recorded only a slight increase to 5.0% y/y. Although energy price pressures stabilized, an analysis of the data shows that, on one hand, price dynamics for fuels (petrol and diesel) are falling rapidly. On the other hand, the dynamics for electricity and gas continue to increase. This reflects the rapid increase in electricity and gas prices this summer. Although the situation on the wholesale markets has already eased considerably, we expect inflation levels for electricity and gas...
  • XAU/USD Gold price edges lower in European trading on Friday, after the action repeatedly failed at 10DMA ($1756), with daily techs remaining bullishly aligned after a pullback from Nov 15 peak ($1786) found firm ground just above pivotal Fibo support (38.2% of $1616/$1786), reinforced by rising 20DMA. The metal is on track for a marginal weekly gains that would partially offset negative signal from previous week's bearish candle with long upper shadow, with more positive signals from monthly performance, as the yellow metal advanced strongly in December and on track for the first bullish monthly close after seven straight months in red ( November's rally marks so far the biggest rally since May 2021). Initial support at $1746 (cracked Fibo 23.6%/5DMA) should ideally hold, however, deeper dips should not exceed...
  • Wayne McDonell has been trading the currency markets in the public eye since 2005. In 2006, he started presenting our Nonfarm Payrolls coverage. We want to celebrate with you his 200th coverage in FXStreet with this exclusive interview. 1. You have been covering Non-Farm Payrolls for 16 and a half years, how do you feel about the trader you were when you started covering it? When I watch videos of the original events, one thing stands out immediately is that very little has changed.  My charts and indicators are the same.  My strategy is the same.  I am proud to see the consistency in the methodology.  It means that what I share is based on the universal truths of trading.   You can watch all 597 hours of the recordings...
  • EUR/USD may move back to parity EUR/USD managed to move rise by almost 1,000 pips after it has been falling for more than a year. In fact, this pullback was needed as the currency pair dropped by more than 20% in just twelve months. The eurodollar moved from $0.9534 to $1.047 in two months in the midst of a US dollar retreat. Related article: Stock indices may crash again soon Now the currency pair stopped at a trend line and resistance. It could be heading back to parity if it fails to break the trend line. Several failed divergences also point to a possible overheated upward move, drawing EUR/USD back down.  EUR/USD is forming a double top pattern, while bouncing from a 200-day moving average (EMA200). The eurodollar might be...
  • S&P 500 closed on a fine note, and keeps nibbing at 4,040 – the great resistance that will ultimately fall (likely early next week). Running the stops before that, but key sectoral performance indicates that it would be only weak hand that would be shaken out. If the sellers had any chance to push through, it was this week – and the final opportunity to do so this year, is to evaporate once the second week of Dec gets out of the way. The outside markets aren‘t hinting at much success for the bears – bonds remain risk-on, USD not throwing a spanner in the works… 10y over 2y yield relenting together with 3m yield going down, that would be most constructive for the bulls – still absent for now,...
  • Dow Jones The Dow Jones is trading just under new multi-month high and moving within a narrow range for the second straight day, in a holiday-thinned market. Traders were mainly on hold for Thanksgiving, but closely watch major retailers on Black Friday, amid the fact that inflation remains high and threats of possible recession next year. The Dow keeps overall strong bullish stance and extends October’s massive gains, sparked by better than expected earnings season and additionally boosted by signals that the Fed would ease its aggressive stance in tightening its monetary policy. Monthly bullish engulfing in October strongly underpinned the action this month, keeping the index on track for the second straight monthly rally, as acceleration from 28638 (Oct 3 correction low) so far retraced over 61.8% of 36830/28638...
  • Happy Thanksgiving to any of our US followers! I have some holiday-related stats to quiz you on to get the episode started this week. Then from a market perspective, I cover what information we learned from the latest FOMC minutes, why the UK is set to be one of the worst performers in the G20 over the next two years, and what caused volatility in the oil market this week.
  • Flash PMI’s for November turned out to be a mixed bag. US data disappointed as the manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.6 from 50.4 and service PMI pushed lower as well to 46.1 from 47.8. It is broadly in line with our view that the US economy is heading into a mild recession in early 2023. Investments still look resilient as durable goods orders were decent in October. However, leading indicators suggest investments will slow down soon. For once the picture was a little more positive in the euro area as both PMI manufacturing and service were better than expected. The German ifo business confidence also surprised to the upside rising to 86.3 from 84.5. Despite the improvement the indicators are still at low levels and point to a euro area...
  • It's official: The most eagerly awaited economic report of this month, if not this year was released on Wednesday and showed the U.S central bank favors slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes to mitigate risks of overtightening. Minutes from the FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting earlier this month revealed several officials backed the need to slow the pace of rate hikes – signalling a pivot to smaller interest rate increases from as early as December. This adds weight to expectations the central bank will raise rates by 50 basis points next month, finally ending a run of super-sized 75 basis point hikes. In another revelation, some committee members expressed concern about risks to the global economy should the Fed continue to press forward at the same aggressive pace. Several Fed officials...
  • After the Thanksgiving downtime that generated some further weakness for the greenback, investors will be looking for fresh direction from the barrage of US economic data that will be dominating the agenda in the coming week. The latest payrolls report will be the main attraction along with PCE inflation readings. CPI data out of Australia, the Eurozone and Switzerland as well as Canadian GDP numbers will be important too, while OPEC’s monthly decision will be another one to watch amid speculation of an output increase.
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